Can you make money investing in Pokémon TCG today?

Pokémon is one of the most iconic and successful franchises of all time, spanning video games, movies, and of course, the Trading Card Game (TCG). For over 25 years, Pokémon cards have been collected, traded, and played by millions worldwide. In recent years, however, Pokémon TCG has gained attention not just from players and collectors, but also from investors looking to cash in on the game's rise in popularity. But with the market becoming increasingly flooded and competitive, is it still possible to reliably make money investing in Pokémon TCG products today?

Let’s break down the dynamics of the market and explore the potential for profitable Pokémon card investments.

The Rise of Pokémon TCG Investment

In the last five years, the Pokémon TCG market has exploded. During the pandemic, the combination of nostalgia, increased free time, and a renewed interest in physical collectibles led to a sharp increase in demand for Pokémon cards. Certain cards, particularly rare or high-grade specimens, saw their prices skyrocket. For example, a PSA 10 Charizard from the 1999 Base Set sold for over $220,000 in 2021, up from about $50,000 just a year prior. Other cards from the same era, such as first edition holographic cards, also saw massive price jumps.

This surge in value sparked a gold rush-like mentality among investors, with both new and seasoned collectors looking to profit from the market's growth. But as with any investment, understanding the nuances of the market is crucial before diving in.

Is It Still Profitable?

The short answer is: yes, but with caveats.

While it is possible to make money investing in Pokémon TCG products today, it’s no longer as simple as buying a box or card and waiting for it to appreciate. The market has become more saturated, and with more eyes on the prize, the opportunity for quick and easy profits has dwindled. However, this doesn’t mean that all hope is lost. To help determine whether Pokémon cards are a viable investment today, let’s break it down into two key factors: quantitative and qualitative analysis.

1. Quantitative Analysis: The Numbers Game

When it comes to investing in Pokémon TCG, the numbers matter. In general, rare and highly graded cards from older sets like the Base Set, Jungle, and Fossil sets tend to offer the best investment opportunities. These cards are well-known, highly sought after, and have a large collector base, which creates a consistent demand.

Price Trends and Data.

The first step in assessing the viability of investing in Pokémon cards is to look at historical price trends. For instance, the below tracks the average price of graded cards from popular sets over the last five years:

• 1999 Base Set Charizard (PSA 10): $50,000 (2020) → $220,000 (2021) → $140,000 (2023)

• 1999 First Edition Holo Blastoise (PSA 10): $15,000 (2020) → $60,000 (2021) → $25,000 (2023)

• Shining Charizard (Neo Destiny) (PSA 10): $5,000 (2020) → $30,000 (2021) → $12,000 (2023)

  
  

  

As you can see, many of these cards experienced massive price spikes during the COVID-era boom but have since seen a cooling off period. Despite the decline, they are still worth significantly more than they were just a few years ago. While the hype-driven price surge may have tapered off, the long-term value of iconic cards has held up fairly well.

Pokémon Modern Products.

The modern era of Pokémon TCG (sets from Sun & Moon and Sword & Shield onwards) is a different story. While products like Hidden Fates (2019) and Shining Fates (2021) had explosive sales during their releases, their prices have stabilized (or even dropped) over time. For example:

• Hidden Fates Elite Trainer Box (ETB): $90 (2019 release) → $120 (2021 peak) → $85 (2023)

• Shining Fates ETB: $60 (2020 release) → $100 (2021 peak) → $65 (2023)

Modern sets tend to experience a boom right after release, followed by a decline as more product enters the market and interest shifts to newer sets. This makes modern products trickier to invest in for long-term gains, as the market is often flooded with product, limiting scarcity and demand. That said, it is likely that these products will see prices climb again as they become older and less available over time - the risk here is in estimating how long that will take and which modern sets are likely to remain popular.

2. Qualitative Analysis: Market Dynamics and Trends

While numbers tell part of the story, understanding the underlying market dynamics is key to identifying sustainable investments.

Scarcity and Demand

As with any collectible market, scarcity is a major driving factor behind value. Pokémon’s most valuable cards—especially those with low print runs or cards from early sets—are inherently scarce. For instance, a First Edition Holo Charizard from the Base Set has a finite supply, and as long as the demand remains strong, its value will likely stay high.

However, scarcity in modern sets is harder to come by. Pokémon’s print runs are larger than ever, with new sets being released every few months. This means the market is flooded with product, which dilutes the potential for large price increases over time. Therefore, focusing on vintage cards or highly limited special releases (like Shining Legends or Hidden Fates) tends to offer better long-term value.

Grading and Condition.

Grading plays a huge role in the value of Pokémon cards. A PSA 10 (Gem Mint) card is far more valuable than a raw card or one with a lower grade. For example, a PSA 10 First Edition Charizard could fetch tens of thousands of dollars, while the same card in PSA 7 condition might only be worth a few thousand.

The rise of grading companies like PSA, Beckett Grading Services (BGS), and CGC has made it easier for investors to understand the quality of their cards and determine their market value. But the process can be expensive, and a card’s condition must be near-perfect to make a significant return.

The Pokémon Community.

One of the most important factors in the long-term stability of the Pokémon TCG market is the community. Pokémon collectors and players are passionate, and their continued enthusiasm drives the market forward. Unlike other collectible card games, Pokémon has an enduring popularity among multiple generations, which helps maintain demand for the cards.

Furthermore, as Pokémon continues to release new games, TV shows, and movies, the brand remains culturally relevant, which can help keep interest in older cards alive.

Can You Make Money?

The short answer is that you can still make money investing in Pokémon TCG products, but it requires a combination of knowledge, patience, and strategic thinking. The key to successful investing lies in understanding which cards and products hold long-term value and focusing on scarcity, condition, and demand.

For vintage and highly sought-after cards, the market is still lucrative, though not as volatile as it was during the 2021 boom. Modern products, on the other hand, are less predictable and more speculative, requiring careful attention to trends and a bit of luck.

To maximize your chances of success, focus on the following:

• Vintage cards: Look for first editions, holographics, and rare promos in good condition.

• Grading: Invest in cards that can potentially be graded well (PSA 9 or 10) to maximize resale value.

• Long-term approach: Be prepared to hold your cards for years to see significant returns.

• Diversify: Don't put all your funds into one card or set. Spread your investments across different types of Pokémon products.

In conclusion, while the Pokémon TCG market may no longer be a "get rich quick" venture, with the right research and a careful eye on trends, it’s possible to make money investing in the world of Pokémon cards - just don’t expect instant profits. As with any collectible market, the key to success lies in knowing what to buy, when to sell, and how to manage your investments over time.